On March 24, 2025, Professor Rory Medcalf, Head of the National Security College at the Australian National University, delivered a lecture at the Zrínyi Hall of Ludovika University of Public Service at an event organized by the John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics (JLI). The distinguished foreign policy expert discussed geopolitical changes in the Indo-Pacific region, emphasizing Australia’s role with a particular focus on its relations with China, the United States, and Europe.
In his opening remarks, Balázs Tárnok, Director of Research at the JLI, noted that the institute hosts the China and Indo-Pacific Research Program, which aims to enhance Hungarian academic, political, and public understanding of the Indo-Pacific region. He highlighted that the JLI seeks to examine key issues of the changing global order through expert discussions featuring international participants. This event was part of that effort, providing an Australian perspective on the geopolitical transformations of the Indo-Pacific region.
“Australia has become central actor to shaping global thinking about the Indo-Pacific region,” Professor Medcalf asserted. His lecture primarily explored the Indo-Pacific as a strategic system and concept, stressing that this region plays a crucial role in the future of global geopolitics. He described it as a maritime super-region, naturally connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Professor Medcalf argued that an analysis of economic growth, demographic trends, military capabilities, and strategic rivalries underscores the global significance of the Indo-Pacific, particularly due to the rise of China and India. He emphasized that in the long term, this region will shape the future of the international order.
“National security and resilience are fundamental to Australia,” Professor Medcalf noted, recalling that by the late 20th century, Australia had undergone a relatively optimistic shift in its worldview, leading to greater foreign policy engagement with Asia. This development was logical, given Australia’s economic dependence on its Asian neighbors, particularly India, China, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. However, by the 2010s, one of the most pressing issues had become China’s increasing political influence in Australia. Discussing Australia’s policy toward Europe, Professor Medcalf pointed out that the current government has sent clear signals not only in support of Ukraine but also in endorsing European engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.
Following the lecture, Viktor Eszterhai, Head of the China and Indo-Pacific Research Program at JLI, moderated a discussion featuring Professor Medcalf and Ádám Csenger, analyst at the Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation. They examined Australia’s strategic responses to the geopolitical shifts shaped by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Professor Medcalf recalled that Australia has made substantial efforts—especially since 1951—to ensure its reliability as a U.S. ally. (As is well known, in 1951, Australia, the United States, and New Zealand signed the ANZUS Treaty to protect security in the Pacific.) He underscored that maintaining close ties with Australia aligns with U.S. interests, but he also stressed the importance of Australia strengthening its own capabilities and enhancing its national security efforts.
The discussion also addressed Australia’s foreign policy approach to multipolarity. Professor Medcalf suggested that his country serves as a security anchor for the United States in the region, but it must also collaborate with partners such as India, Vietnam, and Indonesia to balance China’s influence through diplomatic engagement.